My Research on MobileCoin , last year!

  1. Revenue(2026,forecast):$63 million
  2. Discount rate:35%
  3. Present Value of Revenue:$14 million
  4. Valuation/Revenue:65x
  1. Launching on Signal, along with exclusivity agreement gives it a good market penetration for at least next couple of years.
  2. Promises privacy and security , through a series of trusted enclaves and Intel’s SGX.
  3. Early adopter in a fast growing space, especially if it can expand its services beyond P2P transactions/transfers.
  1. There is no revenue or cash flow, it won’t be wrong to say that it is pre-product, with final launch susceptible to delays.
  2. Cash App allows its users to not only transfer money but also invest in different products through its platform and is also connected to their bank accounts, which looks difficult for MobileCoin to do at least for next couple of years , given scrutiny around digital currency projects and lack of support by other platforms.
  3. The team is only advised by Moxie Marlinspike, but it seems he would not be involved with running directly for the foreseeable future.
  1. With digital currency adoption on rise and people willing, if it can deliver on its promise of instant transactions,this is a cheap opportunity in the long term.
  2. There is a chance that MobileCoin can be adopted by multiple messaging applications like Whatsapp , Telegram apart from Signal, which can give total market size a big boost.
  1. No differentiation from other giant players for an average user as such.
  2. Similar experiments of payments in digital currency in the past haven’t particularly ended well with regulators.
  3. Depends on Intel’s SGX(Software Guard Extensions) for its technological architecture, adding a layer of centralization and dependence.

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